Yankees @ Mets Series PreviewPosted: July 1, 2011
I know I haven’t been posting to much recently, but I’m gonna try to get back into the swing of things now with a new month. And I think it’s just in time as the Yankees go to Citi Field to wrap up interleague play for the season tonight, Derek Jeter is on the verge of coming off of injury, and the trade deadline will here right before we know it.
The Mets sit at 41-40, 9.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East and have been on something of a roll since interleague play resumed a couple of weeks ago winning six of their last eight. This stretch included four straight games of scoring at least eight runs. So I think it’s the Yankees job to give them a dose of reality and hopefully knock them below .500.
On offense, the Mets are led by electric lead-off man Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, two guys that are on the last year of their respective contracts. Interesting how that has worked out. Anyway, the other New York team is in the top five in batting average, on-base percentage, wOBA, wRC+, and lead it in BB% and stolen bases. Let’s take a look at a projected lineup:
- Jose Reyes, SS
- Justin Turner, 3B
- Carlos Beltran, RF
- Daniel Murphy, 1B
- Jason Bay, LF
- Angel Pagan, CF
- Josh Thole, C
- Scott Hairston, DH
- Ruben Tejada, 2B
As you can see, the bats aren’t the real problem with this team, but it is really the pitching. The funny thing about that is that their starting pitching has actually overachieved. They are in the top three in homers allowed per nine innings and FIP, and are middle of the pack in ERA, xFIP, and strikeouts and walks per nine. This weekend they will face lefty Jon Niese, who has been solid, Dillon Gee, who has been very good, but I don’t think it is sustainable, and RA Dickey, who has taken step back from last season. Here are the match-ups:
Ivan Nova (7-4, 4.26 ERA) vs. Jon Niese (7-6, 3.67 ERA)
Bartolo Colon (5-3, 3.10 ERA) vs. Dillon Gee (8-1, 3.32 ERA)
Freddy Garcia (7-6, 3.28 ERA) vs. RA Dickey (4-7, 3.77 ERA)
The match-up that appeals to me the most is Saturday’s when two pitchers that pound the zone will toe the rubber. It will be interesting to see how Colon pitches coming off the disabled list and how he will work with a strict pitch count being enforced.
The Mets bullpen looked like it was figured out in early May with Pedro Beato, Izzy (don’t feel like spelling the whole thing out), and Francisco Rodriguez, but Beato has been pretty ineffective of late. They are middle of the pack in most categories relative to the NL, but do give up a lot of homers and have pitched to a rather high 4.07 FIP.
So that’s really it. Tonight’s game will start a little after seven and will be interesting with the two youngsters facing off. My prediction is that Yanks once again take two out of three from their cross-town rivals.